May 072014

Thereby, our comparable analysis shows the fair value of Axon to be $14.34 per share or 42% lower from the current price.Source: Capital IQ, Own estimatesWhen we got the results from the DCF model and the comparable analysis, we decided to combine both of them and came to a conclusion that the final fair value of Axon is $18.60 per share, which represents a downside of 25% from the today’s price.Source: Own estimatesWe based our analysis based on the involvement of the SEC and the possible effect that it could have on Axon’s state of affairs. If the future earnings results will show a lesser percentage of the revenue growth on an annual basis, then our argument regarding the lower demand for the company’s products and services will have a stronger standing. As of today, we hold a short position in Axon, but it represents a relatively small portion of our portfolio and we would like to see how the situation with the SEC will evolve and whether the future earnings will show that the growth is slowly deteriorating before increasing our short position.Disclosure: I am/we are short AAXN.I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions.

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